Model-based estimates indicate that between January and August, the volume of taxes, fees, and other state revenues generated by the ferrous scrap market fell by approximately UAH 1.008 billion – a 36.6% decrease compared to the same period last year.
This was reported by Volodymyr Bublei, President of the Ukrainian Association of Secondary Metals (UAVtormet).
While such revenues were estimated at UAH 2.752 billion for the first eight months of 2025, they dropped to approximately UAH 1.744 billion during the corresponding period of 2026, he said. He was commenting on calculations regarding the economic impact of the export ban and reduced domestic scrap consumption on the industry.
According to Bublei, the bulk of the losses stems specifically from the cessation of scrap exports. In the first eight months of 2025, 283.1 thousand tons of raw material were shipped abroad, whereas in 2026, export volumes effectively dropped to zero.
At the same time, the expected offset of this volume by domestic demand did not materialize; deliveries of ferrous scrap to metallurgical plants fell from 996.8 thousand tons to 925.4 thousand tons, a further decline of 71.4 thousand tons, or 7.2%. During this period, the total volume of scrap collection fell by 27.7%, from 1.344 million tons to 971.7 thousand tons.
Calculations indicate that of the estimated 1.008 billion UAH in lost state revenue, approximately 869.41 million UAH (86.2%) is attributable to the cessation of exports. Another 132.87 million UAH (13.2%) stems from reduced scrap sales on the domestic market, while about 6.12 million UAH (0.6%) results from lower minimum payments by individual entrepreneurs involved in scrap collection.
According to the calculation model, a single ton of scrap sold for export could generate approximately 3,071 UAH in taxes, fees, and other budget revenues, whereas domestic sales yielded about 1,861 UAH.
The difference amounts to more than 1,210 UAH per ton, or approximately 39.4%, Bublei notes. (Epravda)