On December 1, Russia prohibited to import certain goods from Turkey. And Ukraine could be a winner in this situation, if Turkey implements sanctions in response.
According to some experts, Russia’s metal exports to Turkey reached $1.6 billion. Thus Ukraine could try to increase its exports.
Most of Russian products could be substituted with Ukrainian.
“In 2014 Russia exported 2 million tons of iron ore pellets, this year – 1.4 million tons. Ferrexpo and Metinvest could take these volumes. Since both of them are exporting to Turkey anyway (in January-October Ferrexpo exported 0.6 million tons of pellets, Metinvest – 0.34 million), there is no need to establish trade connections”, said CTS-Consulting analyst Andrei Isayev.
Almost all ferrous metals exports from Russia to Turkey could be substituted with Ukrainian products. Mariupol Ilyich Iron and Steel Works, Azovstal and Zaporizhstal, as well as ISD’s Alchevsk Iron and Steel Works, producers of flat rolled metal and slabs, could increase their exports by 3-3.5 million tons per year. If Russia leaves Turkish market, Ukraine could also claim the billet exports (1.5 million tons).
“Turkey is one of Ukraine’s main metal markets, and number 1 in ferrous metals exports. In January-October Ukraine exported 2.4 million tons of metal to Turkey, or 15% of all its export volumes. Almost all Ukrainian metal companies have constant trade connections with Turkish consumers”, noted Isayev. (Ukrainian metal)
