Global copper demand is steadily growing, making it a strategic resource for many countries, including Kazakhstan, which has significant reserves and a developed processing system. Against this backdrop, the dynamics of refined copper production in the country are particularly significant, reflecting both internal processes in the industry and its response to global economic trends.
According to current data from the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) of the Agency for Socio-Economic Development and Reform of the Republic of Kazakhstan, refined copper production in Kazakhstan amounted to 471,000 tons in the first 12 months of last year, exceeding the 463,900 tons recorded in 2024. This increase amounted to 7,100 tons, or 1.5%, indicating continued positive momentum and a gradual stabilization of the industry after a period of fluctuations.
In a longer-term retrospective covering the period 2018-2021 (with revised annual data already available), the industry experienced significant volatility. In 2018, refined copper production amounted to 442.6 thousand tons. In 2019, output increased by 7.7%, to 476.5 thousand tons. In 2020, growth continued, but at a slower pace: production reached 482.9 thousand tons, an increase of 1.3% YoY. The most significant decline over the entire period was recorded in 2021, when output fell to 403.3 thousand tons. The annual decline amounted to 79.7 thousand tons, or 16.5%, which was the deepest decline in the analyzed period. The decline in refined copper production in 2021 was driven by a combination of factors, including major repairs and modernization at a number of processing plants, including the completion of a furnace overhaul at the Balkhash copper smelter of Kazakhmys Smelting LLP. The COVID-19 pandemic also played a role.
Against this backdrop, the 2024 results reflect a recovery in the industry: refined copper production amounted to 474.9 thousand tons, exceeding the 2021 figure by 71.7 thousand tons, or 17.8%, demonstrating progress in overcoming the effects of the downturn and strengthening the production base.
Against the backdrop of recovering production indicators, the dynamics of foreign trade activity are particularly significant. The increase in refined copper production was accompanied by a restructuring of export deliveries. However, the total export volume in the sector declined, which is quite significant given the continued high global demand.
According to data from the Bank of Kazakhstan’s National Revenue Service and the State Revenue Committee of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan’s refined copper exports from January to November 2025 totaled 400,800 tons – a decrease of 36,500 tons, or 8.3%, compared to the same period in 2024 (437,300 tons). The main decrease was due to a decrease in shipments to China of 89,100 tons, or 31.2%, from 285,800 to 196,700 tons. Moreover, China’s share of Kazakhstan’s total copper exports from January to November last year amounted to 49.1%, compared to 65.4% in the same period in 2024, a decrease of more than 16 percentage points.
Against this backdrop, shipments to Turkey increased significantly: exports increased from 142,200 to 164,000 tons, an increase of 21,800 tons, or 15.3%. Turkey’s share increased from 32.5% to 40.9%, indicating the growing importance of this destination for Kazakhstan’s copper exports.
At the same time, China and Turkey together accounted for 90% of Kazakhstan’s total copper exports for January to November 2025, confirming the continued high dependence of foreign trade supplies on these two key destinations.
Shipments to other countries increased 4.4-fold over the same period, from 9,200 to 40,100 tons. Their share in Kazakhstan’s export structure increased from 2.1% to 10%. This also indicates diversification of export destinations and reduced dependence on a single large consumer.
It’s important to note the global structural shifts in copper demand. As mentioned earlier, demand for this metal is growing. According to S&P Global’s forecast, total global copper demand will grow from 27.3 million tons in 2024 to 42.3 million tons by 2040, an increase of 15 million tons, or approximately 55%. The main drivers of this growth will be the energy transition (including electric vehicles, renewable energy, and grid modernization), the development of AI and data centers, and steadily increasing consumption in the defense sector.
In particular, the energy transition segment, driven by digitalization and the implementation of computing technologies, will more than double its copper consumption until 2040, reaching 15.6 million tons, up from 7.6 million tons in 2024, while the AI and data center sectors will increase their copper consumption from 1 million to 2.5 million tons. Steady growth is also expected in the core economy, where copper consumption is expected to rise from 17.8 million to 23.3 million tons. This suggests that traditional industries, including construction and engineering, will remain an important component of global demand.
According to Fitch Solutions, China will be the largest contributor to global refined copper consumption growth through 2028, with demand for this product expected to grow from 15.9 million tons in 2023 to 18.9 million tons in 2028, an increase of more than 3 million tons, or 19%, over the five-year period. China will thus maintain its dominant position, consuming approximately 60% of the world’s copper. This growth will be supported by large-scale investments in construction, transport infrastructure, industry, as well as the development of power transmission networks and the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles.
Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan, which possesses significant copper reserves and accounts for a large share of metals in its total external exports, will likely continue to view China as a key export market. Despite a decline in China’s share of Kazakhstan’s total copper exports in 2025, continued high demand and long-term forecasts make this a priority. Combined with growing interest from Turkey, India, and other Asian countries, this opens up opportunities for supply diversification and strengthening foreign trade resilience.(EnergyProm)