Within the next 2 years, steel output in Ukraine will decrease at least by two-thirds, director of Metinvest strategy and business development department Roman Perepelitsa has said.
The company sees two possible scenarios.
The first presupposes the victory of Ukraine in war with Russia. Then a speedy recovery of the economy can be expected with the pre-war GDP to be reached in 5 years. Steel output will be growing. In 2022, the output will be 7.6 million tons and in 2023 – 8.3 million tons, while in 2021 Ukraine produced 21.37 million tons. Thus, the decrease will be 60-65%. Rolled metal manufacture will total 6.9 million tons in 2022 and 7.6 million tons in 2023, with exports at 4.7 million tons and 5.1 million tons respectively.
The second scenario sees war protracting for a long time. This will result in a deep recession in 1-2 years and the following stagnation of economy. In this case, in 2022 steel output will amount to 6.5 million tons and in 2023 – 6.1 million tons, and rolled metal – 5.9 million tons and 5.1 million tons, with exports at 4.1 million tons and 3.8 million tons respectively. (Ukrainian metal)
