UC RUSAL expects global aluminum deficit to rise to 1.7-1.8 million tons in 2018 from 1.3 million tons in 2017, Director for Strategy, Business Development and Financial Markets Oleg Mukhamedshin reported on July 12.
The situation at the aluminum market is improving thanks to China’s policy on cutting emission and closing inefficient capacities. RUSAL also sees better demand for its products from major consumers, including the car, construction, transport industries and producers of packages, he said.
“We see deficit at 1.3 million tons this year, and at 1.7-1.8 million tons next year. Contraction of storage reserves is connected to that. We see that even stock reserves that are registered with the London exchange have decreased to below 2 million tons from their peak figures of 5 million tons two years ago,” he said. “We estimate the world’s combined stock reserves, including China, at about 8 million tons now, while previously they exceeded 15 million tons.”
RUSAL also sees the aluminum price flat as there are no reasons for it to fall, and thinks that the supply and demand balance at the market will remain.
“We think that the price should remain above a $1,900 per ton mark,” he said. (Prime/Ukrainian metal)