Russian metal makers do not expect a major increase in demand in 2017 because of the low capacity loading, overproduction risks and the increasing protective measures on export markets.
In early 2016 metal companies expected a drop in local demand, but by year-end theirs forecasts have grown considerably. In 2017 they await a small increase in demand.
Severstal expected the local consumption to fall in 2016 by 10%, but now awaits a 6% drop. Next year the company sees a slight increase – by 1.5%. NLMK believes growth in demand for steel will remain on 2016 level – around 1%.
Raiffeisenbank expects local consumption to fall by 6-7% in 2016, but increase by 1-2% in 2017. BKS awaits the increase in demand in 2017 by 1-2%, while this year rebars and hot-rolled steel demand is expected to fall by 11% and by 10% YoY respectively.
VTB Capital is more optimistic and forecasts steel demand to grow in 2017-2018 by 5% each year, and by 2% afterwards. (Ukrainian metal)